Every day, millions of public transport journeys are made across the Capital, and understanding the factors driving this demand for travel will be key to shaping London’s future. These journeys generate a wealth of data, which we use to inform commentary on current demand trends and predict how changes to fares, service and the economy will affect our customers and, ultimately, TfL’s revenues and future policy options.

The Pricing & Forecasting team is responsible for:

• Monitoring, analysing and communicating current public transport demand trends
• Producing the demand and revenue forecasts for public transport modes that underpin TfL’s budget and business planning processes.
• Evaluating the likely effects on demand and revenue of potential changes to the level and structure of fares.

Job Purpose

You will be responsible for the provision of high-level support for senior managers and directors. This entails analysing and forecasting trends in travel demand and evaluating proposals for developments to fares and ticketing. Examples of high-profile work undertaken by the team include the evaluation of Mayoral candidates’ fare proposals and the analysis of the impact of the off-peak Fridays trial. Using economic, demographic and transport service data from a wide range of internal and external sources and building econometric models to explain trends in demand, in this role, you will draw on a wide range of information, including internal data on ticket sales and revenues and Oyster and Contactless usage data. You will undertake a wide variety of analytical tasks and communicate your findings by engaging with a range of audiences and solving problems by applying innovative techniques to the interrogation and visualisation of data.

Key Accountabilities

• Analyse and interpret fare revenue and ridership data, together with the development of appropriate statistical models, in order to build demand forecasts and provide an explanation of trends across all the TfL modes for senior management.
• Evaluate the impact on revenue, ridership and customers of fare revision options and ticketing initiatives across all TfL public transport modes and National Rail in London, developing established computer models and creating ad-hoc new ones as required to do this in order that the financial and other impacts of fares and ticketing changes are properly understood.
• Develop, populate and maintain a variety of major databases ranging from internal ticket sales, revenue and passenger usage information to externally sourced economic series in order to support the multiplicity of analytical and modelling tasks as described in the accountabilities above.
• Provide a wide range of ad-hoc analyses of Oyster and other ticketing data and develop the necessary expertise and familiarity with the relevant databases in order that non-routine and novel data analyses can be readily produced.

Skills, Knowledge & Experience

Skills

• First-class analytical skills and the ability to apply this knowledge in a practical environment with high data volumes.
• Ability to present complex technical issues verbally and in writing.
• Ability to communicate effectively, both orally and in writing, with colleagues at all levels across the organisation and external stakeholders.
• Proven ability to build strong relationships with people at all levels, both internally and externally.

Knowledge

• Education to degree standard in a quantitative discipline.
• Ability to apply advanced computer-based analytical techniques, e.g. Excel, statistical software (R, SPSS, STATA, etc.), SQL, and to build appropriate mathematical models.
• Knowledge of TfL’s fare structure and ticketing policies.

Experience

• Experience in developing and managing complex data analysis and/or model-building tasks.
• Track record of delivering results from systems involving high data volumes and the analysis of data from such systems.
• Significant experience in one or more of economic analysis, data science or business analysis is desirable.

We are committed to equality, diversity and inclusion. We want to represent the city we serve, which will help us become a more innovative and efficient organisation. Our goal is to make our recruitment as inclusive as possible. We are a disability-confident employer who guarantees an interview to any disabled candidate who meets all of the essential criteria. We also use anonymising software that removes identifying information from CVs and cover letters to make the process fair.

Application Process

Please apply using your most recent CV and cover letter (Word (.docx) format preferred), limiting each to 2 pages. We encourage you to apply for the position that is most relevant to your existing skills, knowledge and experience, as shortlisting is carried out on the basis of how well you meet the criteria for the role, as signposted by your cover letter.

The closing date for applications is 26/01/2025

Benefits 

In return for your commitment and expertise, you will enjoy excellent benefits and scope to grow.  Rewards vary according to the business area but mostly include: 

• Final salary pension scheme  
• Free travel for you on the TfL network  
• Reimbursement of 75% of the cost of a standard class Ticket for National Rail travel from home or 75% reimbursement on a 28-day Flexi ticket
• 30 days annual leave plus public and bank holidays  
• TfL is committed to work-life balance, operating a hybrid working approach where business and role requirements allow
• Private healthcare discounted scheme (optional)  
• Tax-efficient cycle-to-work programme
• Retail, health, leisure and travel offers  
• Discounted Eurostar travel