UK universities might have to stop recruiting students from “riskier” countries under new proposed visa compliance thresholds, with 20 per cent of enrolments potentially under threat – although some have welcomed the changes as a way of weeding out “bad actors”.
Currently, to sponsor visas for international students, institutions must achieve a visa refusal rate of less than 10 per cent, a course enrolment rate of at least 90 per cent and a course completion rate of at least 85 per cent.
But in the recent immigration White Paper, policymakers proposed raising these minimum pass requirements by five per cent for each metric as part of attempts to tackle what they call “visa misuse”, including students obtaining visas with no intention of studying and growing numbers of asylum claims from students.
Gary Davies, deputy vice-chancellor at London Metropolitan University, was wary of the new limits for visa refusals in particular, arguing that universities often had no control over these decisions.
“We will withdraw from any markets that look even the slightest bit risky because we have already seen over the last year a greater level of uncertainty in the behaviour of the entry clearance officers who do the visa interviews,” he said.
Three institutions were placed on UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) action plans last year for failing to uphold visa sponsorship requirements. If universities fail to comply with the new thresholds, they could have their licences to recruit international students suspended or revoked.
Davies said it is up to UKVI to decide whether or not someone is issued a visa and “they don’t tell us when they refuse a student”.
“We worry that enforcement is going to go back to the culture of hostility that we had back in 2012 under Theresa May – then most definitely universities are going to have to review where they’re...recruiting students from and it will limit the growth of the UK’s sixth largest export.”
Initial estimates based on provisional Home Office data suggest that nearly 20 per cent of total international enrolments could be at threat if the changes go ahead, according to Nicholas Dillon, director at Nous Group.
Dillon agreed that universities were likely to be “disincentivised” from recruiting from markets with a “moderate” risk of refusal, which include countries accounting for a significant proportion of international students in the UK, such as Nigeria and Pakistan.
“There are things that universities can do to reduce the compliance risks as well, by adopting extra checks…but that also costs money,” he said.
He found that nearly 73,000 student visas were granted to students from countries with visa refusal rates between 5 and 10 per cent in 2024, accounting for 19.2 per cent of all student visas granted.
Some in the sector welcomed the measures, however, as a way of helping the government identify unscrupulous providers.
“It isn’t something that we’re concerned about,” said Robin Mason, pro vice-chancellor (international) at the University of Birmingham. “We have to show that we’re establishing and maintaining standards.
“It would be short-sighted or naïve to take this current White Paper as being the settled position forevermore, and if the sector can’t provide assurance and confidence on these sorts of aspects, then we ought to expect further moves from government.”
Shivani Bhalla, head of international student recruitment at Brunel University of London, agreed.
“This is a welcome change if it has to be because it’s only going to make the overall sector better,” she said.
“We do everything in our capacity to recruit genuine students to Brunel and to the UK, and I don’t think this is going to in any way change that.”
However, she conceded that some institutions, particularly smaller ones, could shy away from recruiting from certain countries in light of the new thresholds.
