Keir Starmer’s plan to bring down UK net migration by improving domestic training and skills is not guaranteed to work, the government’s independent advisers have concluded.
The migration advisory committee also said that the average migrant who comes to the UK on a skilled worker visa contributes 20 times more than the average UK-born adult.
An annual report from the body, released on Tuesday, challenges one of the main tenets of Labour’s plans to reduce net migration, which increased to 906,000 in the year ending June 2023.
Starmer said in July he wanted to cut demand for overseas workers by more strongly linking training with migration policies. “We won’t be content just to pull the easy lever of importing skills. We’re turning the page on that,” the prime minister said.
The report said the committee had discussed the government’s intention to link work immigration and skills policy.
“Linking immigration and skills policy is not a one-size-fits all approach, and it is important to consider the individual circumstances within sectors and occupations, including diagnosing whether shortages are genuinely driven by lack of skills or are because of poor pay and conditions,” the committee said.
“Increasing the level of skills in the domestic labour pool is a worthwhile policy in its own right, but does not guarantee a substantial reduction in the reliance on the immigration system.
“Employers will often still seek the best possible match for their vacancy, which could include international recruits, and the impact of investment and skills on immigration will vary by sector and occupation.”
The committee, which advises the government on shortages of skilled labour, said that skilled workers from overseas had a positive net fiscal impact of £16,300, while the average UK-born adult had a positive net fiscal impact of £800 in 2022-23.
“The significantly higher net contributions for skilled workers compared to UK-born adults reflects both the combination of the higher incomes for this group, leading to higher tax revenues, and reduced expenditure in part due to the rules on no recourse to public funds.
“Skilled workers also tend to be younger than the UK population as a whole, resulting in lower health costs compared to the UK average,” the report said.
Starmer’s government has pledged to bring down net migration – the number of people moving to the UK minus the number leaving the country – which has been at the forefront of immigration debates in the UK.
The government has asked the committee to monitor key sectors where skills shortages have led to surges in overseas recruitment and provide a yearly assessment to ministers to inform policy decision-making.
Rules around visa sponsorship of migrant workers will also be strengthened so that action can be taken against employers who flout employment laws.
Prof Brian Bell, the chair of the committee, said: “We know that recent figures have shown net migration falling. This has been driven both by government policy changes and by other factors, such as the impact of enhanced enforcement of the genuine vacancy test in the care sector.”
“Whilst we are expecting net migration to fall further, we would caution the government against seeing linking immigration and skills policy as a one-size-fits all approach to bringing down net migration and encourage them to continue to consider individual circumstances within sectors.”
“This report develops a methodology for understanding the fiscal impact of migrants on the skilled worker visa, an important metric for understanding whether a route enhances the welfare of the resident population.”
