The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) recommends the UK's Graduate Route remains in place in its current form. MAC stated they have not found evidence of widespread abuse specifically for the Graduate route although they have concerns over the use of recruitment agents by universities in certain markets in providing misleading information to prospective students.
In response to the 5 questions asked by the government, this is what MAC provided;
1. Is there any evidence of abuse of the route, including the route not being fit for purpose?
We have not found evidence of widespread abuse specifically for the Graduate route. The risks of abuse are relatively low due to the limited number of conditions the route imposes. We have not been able to assess the risk of overstaying due to a lack of data on this from the Home Office. We are concerned about potential exploitation of both Student and Graduate visa holders due to poor practices by certain agents and sub-agents who recruit students onto courses and may be mis-selling UK higher education, but this is a separate issue from abuse of the rules of the Graduate route. Whilst we have not been able to establish scale, the issue of exploitation of route users was raised by student representatives, sector bodies, and in several interviews that we commissioned with Graduate visa holders.
2. Who is using the route and from what universities did they graduate from?
114,000 Graduate route visas were granted for main applicants in 2023 with a further 30,000 granted for dependants. The use of the Graduate route is concentrated among 4 nationalities. The top 4 - India, Nigeria, China and Pakistan - account for 70% of all Graduate visas with India accounting for over 40%. The majority of those on the Graduate route completed postgraduate taught courses. 91% of Graduate visa holders in 2023 had completed a postgraduate taught course. Most of the growth since the Graduate route’s introduction is from non-Russell Group universities’ postgraduate courses which account for 66% of all Graduate visas. This is the same group that has driven the growth in the number of Student visas in recent years.
3. What are the demographics and trends for students accessing a Study visa and subsequently accessing the UK labour market by means of the Graduate route?
The age profile of those on the Graduate route is changing. Since 2021, the proportion of main applicants aged over 25 has increased by approximately 15 percentage points to 54% in 2023. This has coincided with an increase in the dependant ratio for the Graduate route and an increase in share of dependants that are children. However, this was before the introduction of the dependant rule change. Early evidence suggests the dependant rule change is already having an effect with the number of dependant applications falling by 80% when comparing Q1 2024 with Q1 2023. It will be necessary to await the usual peak in Student visa data at the start of the next academic year in September 2024 to see the full effect of the policy
4. What work do Graduate visa holders do during and after their time on the route and are they contributing to the economy?
Based on the available data, it appears that Graduate visa holders are initially overrepresented in lower-paid work (below the Skilled Worker route threshold for health and care occupations), but that their outcomes improve over time. After a year on route their earnings are not dissimilar to a domestic graduates 15 months after they have graduated. Among the first cohort of Graduate visa holders, around half moved on to Skilled Worker visas, primarily into skilled roles. Graduate visa holders who move into the Skilled Worker route have earnings and work in occupations which are comparable to domestic UK graduates. We expect the impact on public finances of Graduate visa holders on the route to be small but positive, as most appear to work, are young, and have no recourse to public funds. We were unable to access data which would allow us to look at the employment outcomes of dependants on the Graduate route and therefore it is not possible to assess their economic impact.
5. Is the Graduate Route undermining the integrity of and quality of the UK higher education system? Is the Graduate Route supporting the UK to attract the brightest and best, contributing to economic growth and benefitting British higher education and soft power?
We conclude that the Graduate route is not undermining the integrity of and quality of the UK higher education system. Under the current funding models for higher education across the UK, the Graduate route is helping universities to expand the range of courses offered while making up for financial losses on domestic students and research. It has also contributed to diversifying the range of universities (and thus domestic students) that benefit from the financial contribution international students make. The potential poor practice by some agents recruiting international students does risk undermining the integrity of higher education in the UK, as set out in the abuse section. We were unable to identify a meaningful definition of ‘brightest and best’ to use in this commission and cannot comment on the performance of the route against this objective. As previously expressed in our 2018 Student route review, we expect those who remain in the UK long term to make positive net contributions to public finances and the economy. We are unable to measure the impact on soft power in any meaningful way. We would expect a positive effect, though it is not possible to estimate the scale of this effect and its potential impact relative to wider government levers to boost soft power.
The Graduate Route is seen as having a positive impact on the UK's attractiveness as a destination for international students, as well as on the UK's higher education sector and economy. Stakeholders acknowledged the importance of international students to higher education (HE) finances, they were also keen to stress the wider benefits they believe international students bring to the UK.
Overall, the review highlights the importance of the Graduate Route in attracting and retaining international talent, while also emphasising the need for careful monitoring and evaluation to ensure its effectiveness and integrity. This recommendation follows concerns about potential alterations to the Graduate visa, but the MAC's advice has provided reassurance to many.
In conclusion, the Graduate route is not undermining the integrity of and quality of the UK higher education system. Under the current funding models for higher education across the UK, the Graduate route is helping universities to expand the range of courses offered while making up for financial losses on domestic students and research.
The full MAC report Rapid Review of the Graduate Route was released on 14th May 2024 and is available on their website here
